December 16, 2023
Western pressure on Israel for a cease-fire in the rubble-strewn Gaza has suddenly begun to mount.
This is the first time since the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under such criticism. Before that, 800, 800 Palestinians were martyred every single day, but all of them were fasting in silence.
The question is whether Israel or the Palestinians will benefit from the ceasefire at this time. Also, when will there be a ceasefire and what will be the conditions?
On October 16, I wrote a column for the GeoNews English website in which I mentioned the dangers posed by this war to the proposed trade corridor through the Middle East. In the same article, I also explained that about two thousand of our citizens, including soldiers, In response to the killing by Hamas, Israel will kill at least 20,000 Palestinians.
Since about 2800 Palestinians were martyred at that time. Therefore, the concept of the death of 20,000 Palestinians was apparently unreasonable. Some people were not ready to accept this because they believed in the so-called Muslim Mothers' Pride Brigade, which, according to them, was supposed to stand as an iron shield in favor of the Palestinians.
For me, realism and lessons from history were more important. The main reason for my estimate was 25 years of journalistic experience that consistently noted that Israel kills at least 10 Palestinians for every death of its own citizen.
Citing the interesting children's story 'Badshah Nga Nikla', it was also made clear that since Hamas had proved Israel so vulnerable to the world for the first time, it could not be said that the imposed How terrible will the destruction be and what will be the consequences of this genocide?
Now, with the martyrdom of nearly 20,000 Palestinians and more than 7,000 missing or in other words possibly buried under the rubble, the total death toll has reached 27,000, so the time has come to mention the next phase of the war.
The situation is that Israel has forcibly evicted more than 90 percent of the Palestinians, and more than 60 percent of the buildings and houses have been destroyed and turned into safe havens for Hamas fighters.
The result is that there is now a guerilla war in which Israeli tanks are being targeted from a few feet away like children playing marbles in the streets and neighborhoods. The killing of 10 soldiers, including two commanders, in a single day is a sign that Hamas's position has begun to strengthen.
The reason is that Hamas fighters grew up in the same Gaza, grew up in the same streets, it is difficult to defeat them in a guerilla war without suffering huge casualties because they know how to hide from houses in tunnels. It has to be.
These fighters have survived in northern Gaza despite weeks of food restrictions. Despite electricity and internet, Israelis are posting videos of soldiers being targeted every day, meaning one fighter fires a rocket launcher while another calmly films the scene.
That is, Israel is now faced with a camouflage that is a challenge to avoid. This situation is a clear reflection of the mistakes made by Israel in planning the ground operation.
The Israeli Prime Minister also tried to crush the sympathizers of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Palestinians in Iraq at the same time. Since Hamas is Iran's bloodline, Iran should also be drawn into the war so that the map of the entire region can be changed at once. But Israel's attempt to spread the war failed. Hizbollah did not take an extreme action, nor did the Houthis and the Iraqis. Despite threats, Iran also did not jump into the Israel-Palestine war.
One of the main reasons why Iran was not directly involved in the war was probably that Iran was not in a position to fight Israel at that time. It may be easy for Iran to bomb Israel and destroy various cities, but ensuring internal security is a bigger challenge.
Involvement in the war was also avoided because Iran currently has around 8 million Afghan refugees spread across the country, many of them male Afghans living without their families. .
The effects of the economic collapse of the uninvited Afghan visitors are in place, including thousands of them who have professional combat training and can be walking bombs at a moment's notice.
That is why along with Pakistan, Iran is also engaged in action against the Afghan refugees who came illegally, but it is not possible for Tehran to stop those who continuously enter from the 9.5 km long Iran-Afghan border.
Compared to the past, this time China and Russia's attitude towards Israel was relatively strict, but none of these two powers stood up against Israel because only the Arab and Muslim countries for the Palestinians did not go beyond verbal submissions. If so, why should Moscow and Beijing be upset?
It would be better for Russia to prolong the Israeli-Palestinian war because after October 7 hardly anyone mentioned the Russian military operations in Ukraine. Everyone's attention is focused on Palestine. Taking advantage of this, Moscow has strengthened its foothold in Ukraine.
The war did not spread nor did it spread. Now there is Gaza, Hamas, the Israeli army and the daily deaths. In such a situation, Israel's welfare is only in wrapping up the war. That is why the Western countries, which were silent on the bombs falling on the Palestinian population, have suddenly woken up and started insisting on Israel to consider human rights. None of them is ready to say that all displaced Palestinians should be resettled in their territories.
Qaim Ali, an intellectual from Amrohe, says that whenever a Muslim country is bombed, the United Nations Security Council and the Western world will remain silent. A truce will be held on the pretext of mourning the destruction of the Muslim country.
When will this time come in the war between Israel and Palestine? This depends on the effectiveness of Hamas' guerrilla operations.
